BY DAYO ADESULU
As part of the Osun State University’s responsibilities as an academic institution, the management of the University in conjunction with some specialists have launched an online forecast model for COVID-19.
According to the initiators, the online forecast modelling provide academic thrust that would guide the policymakers in the deployment of intervention strategies to combat the virus.
This predictive model is not intended to create panic but to relate the possibility of upsurge or decrease in the episodes of COVID- 19 on a daily basis as government makes frantic efforts to control the infection.
The daily forecast is currently available on the UNIOSUN website and will be updated on a weekly basis. Kindly visit daily for update.
This algorithm includes a set of online models, automatically adapting its parameters and updating its predictions by streaming data from reliable information sources on the COVID-19 situation in Nigeria.
The hope is that we may be able to predict an envelope on the number of cases daily by observing the trend in NCDC’s releases.
Obviously, it is difficult to model COVID-19 (in fact, any real-life scenario is difficult to model) – the number of tests, randomness, interventions, stay-at-home compliance, curfew, epidemiological realities, and many other factors contribute to the difficulty of forecast models in this case. This is for academic purposes.
There are many variables that could render the predictions inaccurate. Please do not panic. All models are wrong, but some are useful – George Box.
Predictive models can help guide our policymakers in the deployment of intervention strategies. This is what we intend to achieve.
This online predictive model was developed by Kabir M. Abdulmajeed and facilitated by Monsuru Adeleke.
*Kabir Abdulmajeed graduated with First Class in Electrical and Electronic Engineering at Osun State University and is currently a Sensors and Algorithms R&D Specialist in the Oil and Gas Sector at United Arab Emirates.*
*Monsuru Adeleke is an Associate Professor of Public Health Entomology and Parasitology at Osun State University Osogbo.*