By DAYO ADESULU
Terrorist groups operating across West Africa are increasingly turning to weaponised drones to carry out attacks, marking a dangerous shift in the region’s security landscape and raising fears that extremist groups are now capable of waging what analysts describe as a “war from the skies.”
A recent BBC report, citing data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), reveals that Islamic State (IS) affiliates have carried out around 20 drone-related attacks, with Nigeria accounting for the majority of the recorded incidents.
Security experts warn that the growing use of drones represents a significant evolution in terrorist tactics, one that could overwhelm existing counter-terrorism strategies if left unchecked.
Drone Attacks Signal New Phase of Terrorism
According to ACLED data referenced in the report, at least two IS-linked groups have adopted drones not only for surveillance but also for direct attack operations, including the delivery of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) on military targets and civilian infrastructure.
Unlike conventional attacks involving firearms or roadside bombs, drones allow militant groups to:
- Strike from a distance
- Reduce direct exposure to security forces
- Gather real-time intelligence before and after attacks
- Target fortified locations previously considered difficult to reach
“This is a clear tactical upgrade,” a regional security analyst told the BBC. “Drones give non-state actors asymmetric power that was once limited to state militaries.”
Nigeria Emerges as the Epicentre
The data shows that Nigeria has recorded the highest number of drone-related terrorist incidents in West Africa, a development that has alarmed security planners already grappling with insurgency, banditry, and communal violence.
IS-linked groups operating in and around the Lake Chad Basin, including factions active in northeastern Nigeria, are believed to be at the forefront of this drone adoption. These groups have historically demonstrated an ability to learn from conflicts in the Middle East, where drones have been widely used by both state and non-state actors.
Analysts say Nigeria’s vast territory, porous borders, and limited airspace monitoring capabilities make it particularly vulnerable to drone-based attacks.
From Forest Warfare to Aerial Threats
For years, counter-terrorism operations in Nigeria and the wider Sahel have focused on ground-based threats—fighters moving through forests, deserts, and rural communities.
The emergence of drones changes that equation entirely.
With commercially available drones becoming cheaper and easier to modify, terrorist groups can now bypass traditional security checkpoints and surveillance systems. Even low-cost drones, experts note, can cause significant damage when fitted with explosives or used to guide fighters toward targets.
“This is no longer just bush warfare,” one defence analyst observed. “Once groups gain confidence in drone operations, the psychological and strategic impact multiplies.”
Regional Implications Beyond Nigeria
While Nigeria remains the hardest hit so far, the report indicates that the threat extends across West Africa, particularly in fragile states already battling extremist violence.
Countries in the Sahel corridor—where security forces are stretched thin and air defence systems are minimal—face heightened risks if drone warfare spreads unchecked.
ACLED researchers warn that the trend could:
- Increase the lethality of attacks
- Enable coordinated multi-location strikes
- Undermine peacekeeping and military operations
- Complicate humanitarian access in conflict zones
Security Agencies Under Pressure to Adapt
The growing use of drones has renewed calls for urgent investment in counter-drone technology, including radar detection, signal jamming, and electronic warfare capabilities.
Military analysts argue that traditional counter-insurgency tools are insufficient against aerial threats and that intelligence-sharing between West African states must improve.
“There is a lag between how fast terrorists are adapting and how quickly states are responding,” a regional security consultant said. “That gap is dangerous.”
In Nigeria, questions are mounting over whether existing security architecture is equipped to detect, track, and neutralise hostile drones before they strike.
A Warning Sign for the Future
Experts say the drone trend should be viewed as an early warning rather than an isolated development. Terrorist groups have historically tested new methods gradually before scaling them up.
If left unchallenged, analysts fear drones could soon be used for:
- Targeted assassinations
- Attacks on critical infrastructure
- Coordinated assaults on military bases
- Surveillance of civilian populations
The BBC report concludes that the rise in drone usage reflects broader global patterns in modern conflict, where low-cost technology enables smaller groups to punch far above their weight.
Growing Calls for Proactive Action
Security stakeholders are urging governments in the region, particularly Nigeria, to move from reactive responses to proactive defence planning.
This includes:
- Strengthening airspace regulation
- Monitoring drone imports and sales
- Training security personnel in counter-drone operations
- Enhancing intelligence-led policing
As terrorist tactics evolve, analysts stress that delay could prove costly.
For now, the message from conflict data is clear: terrorism in West Africa is entering a new phase, and the skies may no longer be safe from the reach of extremist violence.
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