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LookAhead News Alert – Rogue Britain

BY TOM ARMS

Observations of an Expat

Britain is becoming a rogue state. In fact, it may already be one. The Johnson government’s threat to jettison the EU Withdrawal Bill negotiated last year and an alarming philosophy of “creative destruction” threatens to leave the UK dangerously isolated on the world stage.

This is bad for Britain and bad for the world.

The UK is one of the chief pillars of the post-war rule of international law which has underwritten the world’s longest period of relative peace and prosperity. Without these legal structures, dictators are emboldened to embark without fear of serious reprisal on genocide, the murder of political opponents, theft and even war.

The specific issue at stake is Boris Johnson’s Internal Market Bill which will be debated in Parliament on Monday.  Under the terms of the EU Withdrawal Bill which Johnson negotiated a year ago, there would be pretty much an open border between Northern Ireland and Eire, with a de facto customs border in the Irish Sea between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.

The terms were unpopular and a major British concession a year ago. But they were agreed and became a legally-binding building block on which to construct a UK-EU trade deal. Talks for that deal are now deadlocked over fishing rights, legal jurisdiction and competition rules; and Boris fans say that the only way to overcome the impasse is by threatening to break the previous agreement.

The government is fully aware that such a move is a breach of international law. Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis admitted as much. It was confirmed by the protest resignation of Sir Jonathan Jones, the government’s top legal adviser. But they don’t care. Boris Johnson is fixated on British withdrawal from the European Union on his terms. This blinkered policy put him in 10 Downing Street and he is quite happy to sacrifice the rule of law to protect his political legacy and emerging brand of radical conservativism.

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It is obvious that the British Prime Minister has failed to fully assess the consequences of his law-breaking decision. For a start, The Internal Market Bill undermines the Good Friday Agreement which ended “The Troubles” in Northern Ireland.  It also threatens the much-touted US-UK free trade deal which is meant to replace much of Britain’s lost trade with Europe as a pro-Irish Congress has served notice that it will block any deal that threatens the Good Friday Agreement.

Then there is a future relationship with Brussels. Regardless of the outcome of the current of trade talks, it is essential that Britain have good relations with its closest neighbours on a wide range of issues. Breaking its word—or even threatening to do so—at the first opportunity, has already created an air of suspicion that will linger for years.

And what about other trade agreements? If Britain cannot be trusted to keep a cornerstone agreement with the world’s largest trading bloc than how can other countries’ trade negotiators place their faith in the word of Albion?

Let’s not forget Hong Kong where the British are leading the charge against China for breaching international agreements over legal, political and human rights in the former British colony. London’s complaints now reek of rank hypocrisy.

Former British Prime Minister Sir John Major said: “If we lose our reputation for honouring the promises we make, we will have lost something beyond price that may never be regained.”

Andreas Bummel, Director of the Berlin-based Democracy Borders, said that jettisoning international agreements by a major country such as Britain “undermines trust in the reliability of international treaties and sets a bad example across the world.”

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In May 2018. British Foreign Office Minister of State Harriet Baldwin opened a speech to the UN with the words: “There are few values more important to the UK than upholding international law. It is the very foundation of peace and security.” Boris Johnson sacked Ms Baldwin in December 2019.

World Review

It has been a bad week for Trump’s election campaign. His convicted ex-lawyer Michael Cohen has published his kiss and tell expose in which he describes the president as a racist, mobster and conman. Then a bevvy of journalists, including the national security correspondent for Trump cheerleader Fox News revealed the president said that American soldiers who died for their country were “losers”. There was some short-lived positive economic news as the unemployment rate dropped below ten per cent. But then the stock market took a dive led by the usually buoyant tech stocks who are frightened by the administration’s increasing attacks on Chinese tech companies and suppliers and the economic effects of the coronavirus pandemic. Trump’s big hope was the discovery of a vaccine before the 3 November election. But Big Pharma this week announced that it refuses to release any cure until it has been thoroughly tested and indicated that means the start of 2021 at the earliest.  Then Bob Woodward produced a taped conversation with the president which revealed that Trump deliberately lied about the impact of coronavirus. Add to that more African-American death at the hands of the police and more riots. Trump, of course, has something to say about all of the above ranging from outraged denials to vitriolic attacks on socialist Democrats and the Yellow Peril. Joe Biden, in contrast, has maintained a fairly low profile. His strategy appears to be to provide

It looks as if Belarussian dictator Alexander Lukashenko will be able to cling to power a bit longer. This is for several reasons. To start with there does not appear to be a properly organised opposition as the key figures have either fled the country or are behind bars. Next, is the careful diplomatic game being played by both Russia and the EU, as neither one wants to upset the balance of power? Brussels has imposed an asset freeze and sanctions on Lukashenko and 156 other key officials. But they could have gone much further and adopted the full range of sanctions measures as proposed by the European Parliament, Poland and Sweden. The EU does not want to upset the Russian bear, at least not too much. For his part, Vladimir Putin is still taking a wait and see approach. His major concern is a stable pro-Moscow Belorussia to act as a buffer between Russia and the EU and NATO countries. If he thinks that Lukashenko has lost total control than Putin will not hesitate to orchestrate his replacement.

According to official government statistics, four people in Yemen have died of coronavirus. This is, of course, a total lie. With a raging civil war and a breakdown of any serious administrative structure it is impossible to say what the true figure is but given the lack of medical equipment and living conditions the true figure is almost certainly in the thousands, if not tens of thousands. One of the reasons for the death toll is the largely illiterate and religiously conservative society who are being told by the Islamic clergy that Allah—not doctors—will save their lives. In fact, they are being told that doctors and their Western medicine will kill them. On the surface, there is some truth in this assertion because by the time the sceptical patients finally reach the understaffed and poorly equipped hospitals they are so far gone that there is very little that can be done to save them.  Chalk up a victory for religion over science and a defeat for common sense and humanity.

Meanwhile, Arab League foreign ministers meeting in Cairo refused to back a Palestinian demand that the Arab world condemns the UAE’s diplomatic recognition of Israel. The way is now clear for other countries to follow suit, the signing ceremony at the White House next week and possibly even a Nobel Peace Prize for Donald Trump. Palestinians are furious that the league refused to go any further than to restate its support for the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, the two-state solution and the land-for-peace initiative. Perhaps most disappointing from the Palestinian point of view was the wishy-washy position adopted by Saudi Arabia. After the Cairo meeting, the Saudi foreign ministry issued a statement in which it made no mention of the UAE-Israeli deal but simply said that it supported all efforts to reach a comprehensive solution which included a Palestinian state based on pre-1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital.

The Chinese and Indians are at it again on the rooftop of the world. This time shots were fired as the two sides clashed over the ongoing dispute over possibly the most desolate, sparsely populated mountain desert almost totally devoid of any natural resources. All the shots were fired aimlessly into the air and both sides blamed the other for shooting first. But that is of little consequence. What is important, is the fact that both sides broke a 1996 agreement to ban guns and explosives from the disputed border area. The latest clash appears to have been sparked off by a group of environmental Indian tourists wandering across the border into Chinese territory where they were detained. The Indians claimed they were kidnapped and moved forward to rescue them. Shots were fired—into the air. The tourists have since been released. The renewed tensions are becoming increasingly worrisome as on the Chinese side of the border is Xinjiang which is coming under increasing international scrutiny because of the Chinese treatment of the Islamic Uighurs. This issue has been added to the decades-old problems of Kashmir, Indo-Pakistan relations and Tibet.

Filipino President Rodrigo Duterte is best-known for his extra-judicial killings of drug dealers and other criminals. After his election in June 2016, police murders became official policy. Exactly how many have died is unknown because the authorities stopped releasing data when they reached the figure 7,000. The Filipino president is also known as a raving misogynist, but, surprisingly enough, he is not a homophobe. In fact, he has sort of come out in favour of same-sex marriage. At the same time, his foreign policy has swung from virulently anti-America in pre-Trump days to an almost friendly relationship with the American president after Trump congratulated him for his “unbelievable job” in clearing Manila’s streets of criminals and drug dealers. All of the above is the background to Duterte’s pardon this week of US Marine Lance Corporal Joseph Scott Pemberton who was convicted in 2014 of murdering the transgender woman Jennifer Laude. After serving six of his ten-year prison sentence, Pemberton was due for early release. The Laude family appealed against the release so Duterte countered it by simply pardoning the murderer. Did he do it for his friend Trump? Neither man is saying.

READ ALSO: Observations of an Expat: Not So Free or Fair Elections

My favourite Scottish tipple is a peat-flavoured Scotch called Laphroaig. I have been knocking back the occasional malt whisky for some years. What I should have done is followed the example of 28-year-old Matthew Robson from Taunton, England and his father Pete. Every birthday, the elder Robson presented his son with a bottle of 18-year-old Macallan’s whisky (another fine Scotch). The total cost was $6,000. Matthew could have started imbibing when he turned 18, but wisely refrained.  Now he has put the complete set of still-boxed and totally untouched 28 bottles up for auction to raise money for a deposit on a house purchase. The sale is expected to raise a minimum of $50,000. Cheers, Matthew.

Stay Healthy,

Tom Arms

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