BY TOM ARMS
2020 has been a bad year. It is certainly the worst I can remember and I have been around for 71 of them.
The main cause is, of course, coronavirus or covid-19. It started in Wuhan, China almost exactly 12 months ago, and as the year draws to a close about two million people worldwide have lost their lives to this deadly virus.
Coronavirus has destroyed lives and livelihoods and although vaccines are now being distributed, it will be some time before the world returns to normal—if ever.
The Chinese were initially slow to respond to the threat. Whether their tardiness was in response to a lack of medical knowledge or political considerations is unclear. It was most likely a combination of the two.
The Chinese appeared to have relatively quickly stopped the spread of the virus; helped partly by long years of experience of pandemics and epidemics and partly as a result of a tightly-controlled society. As a general rule, Asians have fared better than their counterparts in other parts of the world. Most scientists have ascribed their relative success to the experience of dealing with similar viruses such as SARS (an earlier form of coronavirus) and Avian bird flu.
Those that have fared better than most were countries who could quickly and efficiently shut their borders to the rest of the world. Iceland, New Zealand, Taiwan and Australia are four examples, although almost everyone is suffering as winter and covid-fatigue set in.
The worst-hit were the countries of the West—Europe and North and South America. There the combined emphasis on individual liberties, lack of experience and knowledge, political ineptitude and an emphasis on wealth over health led to the greatest number of deaths.
Two of the best examples were the liberty-loving Anglo-Saxon nations– Britain and America. In the US, the wearing of a face mask offended conservative-libertarian instincts and the donning of this simple preventative clothing item became political rather than a health issue. President Trump exacerbated the situation by staging mask less political rallies and White House parties.
Britain’s Boris Johnson nearly died of coronavirus. But his political instincts survived and they told him that there were more votes in opening stores and schools and refusing to mandate mask-wearing. As a result, he has shifted responsibility for dealing with the crisis from the government to individual shoulders. “Use your common sense,” he urges Britons while failing to recognise that one person’s common sense could lead him in a completely contradictory direction than that of his neighbour.
The result is that Britain and the US are two of the worst-hit countries. On Thursday America hit a new record on the covid front with 3,554 deaths. Britain, with a fifth of America’s population, was 532.
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So far the political fallout from coronavirus has been limited. It did contribute to Donald Trump’s defeat in the November elections, but not as much as many thought. An estimated 17 per cent of the US electorate said they voted for Joe Biden because of his mishandling of the pandemic. In other parts of the world, covid-19 exacerbated existing instabilities rather than created them. Lebanon, Belarus and Thailand were suffering economic and political problems before the pandemic. In most countries, there appears to be a grudging acceptance that their leaders are fighting a war against nature and the time for a political reckoning is after victory is declared and the long-term damage is apparent.
A big part of the reckoning will be the political and economic cost of the pandemic. The US, Britain and the EU have borrowed several trillions of dollars to fight the virus, support families and invest in recovery when it comes. But where is the money coming from?
A big chunk is coming from China. At the start of the pandemic, China was the world’s largest creditor nation. 150 countries owed it an estimated $2.25 trillion. The US, EU and Britain have added several more trillions of covid debt on top of that. China’s money is not loaned by private financial institutions. It is loaned by state organisations controlled by the Chinese Communist Party. This means political control over the loans, and China has proven itself more than willing to use financial levers to achieve political ends.
Yes, 2020 has been a bad year. It also looks pretty dismal for 2021, 2022, 2023….
Sincere Best Wishes for a Happy Christmas and Prosperous New Year despite the gloomy predictions.
World Review
Lockwood owes me ten dollars and, so far, he is refusing to pay. For those who need reminding, Lockwood Phillips is the Trump-supporting co-host of my weekly US radio programme “Viewpoints Around the World.” We had a $10 bet on the outcome of the US election. I bet on Biden and Lockwood put his money on Trump. Like every other diehard Trump supporter he is steadfastly maintaining that the election was stolen by the Democrats and therefore all bets are off. Lockwood’s position is indicative of the divisions that persist in post-election America. Republicans and Democrats regard each other not as politically different but as inherently evil. In many American households a person’s political affiliation has become more important than the traditional divisions of ethnic background or religious belief. The split has become so pronounced that neither side believes that the other could win a fair election. Thus the Republicans had to win with Russian help in 2016 and the Democrats cheated in 2020 (although exactly how Republicans haven’t quite figured out yet). Dangerously emotive and hyperbolic descriptions are thrown out by both sides. To Republicans, Democrats are baby-killing Socialists. A Republican, claim the Democrats, is a politically antediluvian white supremacist Fascist. Biden claims he can bridge this ideological chasm and unite the country. I hope so. I want my ten dollars.
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Last week we were headed at breakneck speed towards a No Deal Brexit—a disaster for both Britain and the remaining 27 members of the EU. And it is not good for the rest of Planet Earth as it would weaken the buying power the world’s largest trading bloc. But this week negotiating deadlines have been set aside—again—and European Commission President Ursula van der Leyden is talking about a “narrow road” to an agreement. The British are slightly less optimistic but still edging in that direction. It seems that a combination of political common sense and an unwillingness to be branded as failures has pushed both sides towards an accord. But they are not there yet. Both sides remain hung up on fishing rights, which have somehow become the ultimate sovereignty symbol. Then there is the problem of parliamentary approval which involves the British Parliament, the European Parliament and 27 national parliaments—all of whom have to give their assent before the 31 December deadline. This is not impossible. It is, however, difficult. British MPs rose for their Christmas recess on Thursday night, but Leader of the House Jacob Rees-Mogg said they could be recalled for a quick one-day session to approve a Brexit deal. The same arrangement could be applied across Europe—if they are willing.
The demonstrations, riots and accompanying arrests, torture and deaths continue in Belarus. It has been over four months since Alexander Lukashenko claimed victory with 86 percent of the vote. The poll was obviously rigged in favour of the 66-year-old Soviet-style dictator who has ruled Belarus with an iron hand for the past 26 years. Most people reckon that the real winner was political neophyte Svetlana Tsikhanovskaya who was in Strasbourg this week to receive the Sakharov Human Rights prize at the European Parliament. Ms Tsikhanovskaya used the occasion to lambast the EU for failing to pressure Lukashenko into leaving the presidential palace. So far they have only made a few anti- Lukashenko statements; banned him from travelling to EU countries and frozen his assets and those of 13 of this colleagues. Not exactly Armageddon-stuff. It should be noted that Lukashenko’s rule is on a dodgy financial footing. Even before the August elections, the Belarussian rouble had slid a third against the dollar. Coronavirus and political instability has increased the slide. The main reason for EU hesitancy is fear of prodding the Russian bear. Moscow regards Belarus as a vital buffer between the Russian heartland and NATO and the EU and would regard any serious Western interference as a hostile act. In fact. Vladimir Putin is pushing for Lukashenko to agree to political and economic integration with Moscow as the price for his continued support of the Belarussian dictator. Of course, this might be regarded as a hostile act by NATO and the EU.
Move over Arnie, the French are coming. To be more precise super French soldiers are being planned who could easily terminate the Terminator, especially Chinese versions. This week the French Armed Forces Ministry secured the go-ahead from its ethical committee to use drugs and surgery to enhance the abilities of its fighting men and women. The new breed will be better equipped to resist pain, stay awake longer, hear better and have increased cognitive abilities. Some soldiers may even be equipped with prosthetic limbs with weapons in the prosthesis. The French insist that the changes will not affect their soldiers’ sense of humanity or ability to detect right from wrong. Neither would they prevent their return to civilian life once the troops have completed their time as killing machines. France’s giant step towards Hollywood-style science fiction has been prompted by a US intelligence report that the Chinese have already started experiments on members of the People’s Liberation Army. So, who’s next?
China’s foray into science fiction received another boost this week when its space capsule returned from the moon to Inner Mongolia filled with lunar dust and rock samples. The success of the Chang’e Five Moon Mission makes it three out of three successful lunar missions for the Chinese and puts them on target for landing and building an international space research station on the moon by the end of this decade. The Chinese Communist Party’s lunar ambitions are designed to prove the superiority of the Chinese political system in much the same way as America’s space programme in the 1960’s boosted US prestige. To achieve success, President Xi Jiping has mobilised the resources of China’s largest companies, universities and research institutes. China’s success and stated ambitions have raised some eyebrows in American circles, some of whom believe that the Chinese plan to use the moon as a military platform. President Xi denies any such intent. He says he wants to explore the moon “with the whole human race” and has no interest in A Cold War-style space race.
Chinese commitment to the established world order is now being tested at the World Trade Organisation’s headquarters in Geneva. This past Wednesday took Beijing to the trade court over its 212 per cent tariff on Australian barley imports. The Chinese (who controversially joined the WTO on 11 December 2001) have also slapped tariffs on Australian wine, beef, seafood, timber and coal. Beijing claims the tariffs are in retaliation for Australian state subsidies. The Australians maintain that the charges are politically-inspired and linked to Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s support for Donald Trump’s demand for an investigation into the origins of the coronavirus pandemic. If China’s actions are political than that is verboten under WTO rules.
Stay Healthy,
Tom Arms
