By DAYO ADESULU
Nigeria’s qualification dream of World Cup has been revived by South Africa’s punishment, but the Super Eagles’ fate is still not fully in their hands.
The Super Eagles must win both remaining games and must hope South Africa or Benin slip. In the end, goal difference could be decisive.
Step 1: Current Standings (Group C, CAF World Cup Qualifiers)
South Africa – 14 points
Benin – 14 points
Nigeria – 11 points
Rwanda – 11 points
Others (Lesotho, Zimbabwe) – out of realistic contention
➡️ Two matches left for each team. Only group winner qualifies directly, while the runner-up might qualify via playoffs if among best runners-up across CAF.
Step 2: Key Remaining Fixtures
(Exact schedule may vary, but these are critical matches)
Nigeria vs Benin (decisive)
South Africa vs Rwanda (top clash)
Nigeria vs lower-ranked team (must-win)
Benin vs Rwanda (points-sharing risk)
Step 3: Scenario Modeling
Scenario A – Nigeria wins both matches
Nigeria ends on 17 points.
If South Africa or Benin slip (draw/lose), Nigeria could top the group.
Probability: ~35% chance of topping the group.
If South Africa & Benin also win, Nigeria finishes 2nd → playoff route possible.
Probability of playoff qualification: ~40%.
Risk: If Rwanda also wins both, things get messier.
Scenario B – Nigeria wins 1, draws 1
Nigeria ends on 15 points.
Very slim chance to top group (only if SA/Benin collapse).
Probability of topping: ~10%.
Playoff chance: ~25%, but depends on how other groups’ runners-up perform.
Elimination most likely: ~65%.
Scenario C – Nigeria drops points (draws/loses one)
Nigeria ends on ≤14 points.
Almost zero chance of topping the group.
Playoff chance also low, since other groups have stronger 2nd place teams (17–18 points).
Probability of elimination: ~90%.
Step 4: Overall Probabilities (as of now)
Direct qualification (top group) → ~25% chance
Playoff route (2nd place, best runners-up) → ~30% chance
Elimination → ~45% chance
What just changed: South Africa’s points deduction.
FIFA stripped South Africa of 3 points for fielding Teboho Mokoena in a match vs Lesotho, despite him being suspended (two yellow cards).
As a result, Lesotho are awarded a 3-0 win, and South Africa lose the three points.
In the updated standings, South Africa is now tied on points with Benin (14 points each), with Nigeria and Rwanda trailing behind on 11 points each.
Thus, the group (Group C, CAF qualifiers) has become tighter at the top. Instead of South Africa having a clear lead, the top 4 teams are now tightly clustered: South Africa, Benin, then Nigeria & Rwanda. That opens up some hope for Nigeria.
Current Situation: where Nigeria stands
From latest:
Nigeria has 11 points, with two matches remaining.
Only the group winner qualifies automatically for the World Cup. The runners-up have to go into playoffs.
South Africa and Benin now lead (tied), while Rwanda and Nigeria follow. Goal difference and remaining fixtures are going to matter.
What Nigeria now needs
Given this recalibration, Nigeria’s path to either topping the group or being among the best runners-up is more plausible, but still difficult. Here are what Nigeria must do:
1. Win both remaining matches — Nigeria must take full points in their last two games. One is probably vs Benin (away or home depending on schedule) and the other vs Lesotho or one of the lower teams.
2. Hope for favourable results in other matches:
That South Africa loses at least one of their remaining games (especially vs Benin or Rwanda). If South Africa draws or wins both, Nigeria cannot catch them on points.
That Benin do not run away with goal difference or points. Even if Benin tie with South Africa, goal difference might play a role.
3. Maintain or improve goal difference — Because in tight groups goal difference often comes into play, Nigeria will need not just wins but possibly winning by margins. Conceding late goals (as they did vs Zimbabwe) will hurt.
4. Monitor the runner-up playoff spots — If Nigeria fail to win the group, they need to secure being among the best runners-up. That means, compared to other groups, Nigeria’s points tally and goal difference must be high. Given many nations in other groups are already ahead or accumulating more favorable results, this is a tough comparator.
Evaluation: How realistic is Nigeria’s qualification now?
Let’s break down odds, risks, and possible scenarios.
Factor Helps Nigeria Hurts Nigeria
Reduced gap South Africa’s point deduction narrowed the gap — Nigeria is now only 3 points behind the top. That means one slip by South Africa (or Benin) gives Nigeria a shot. The margin is still tight. Nigeria has fewer favorable fixtures (especially if they have to play away vs tough opponents).
Remaining fixtures If Nigeria’s last matches are vs weaker teams, that’s helpful. They need home advantage or favorable away conditions. If they face Benin away or South Africa away, those are difficult. Also, any more dropped points (draws/losses) may kill their chance.
Goal difference / margin If Nigeria can win by large margins and keep clean sheets, they boost their case both for topping or best runner-up. They already conceded late, sometimes sloppy goals. If they win narrowly or concede, goal difference may hurt.
Other teams’ performance If South Africa or Benin slip up, draw or lose, that opens up more wiggle room. Rwanda too could drop points. If Benin and South Africa both win, one of them will likely top; Nigeria will be chasing. Rwanda also might outperform Nigeria.
Approximate Scenarios
Here are some possible outcomes and whether Nigeria qualifies in each:
1. Best case: Nigeria wins both, South Africa slips (e.g. loses at least one), Benin does not win both in convincing fashion. Result: Nigeria could top the group or finish second with enough points to enter playoff. In this scenario, qualification is possible either directly or via playoff.
2. Moderate case: Nigeria wins both; South Africa wins one and draws one; Benin wins both. Nigeria likely finishes second but might not have enough for best runner-up spot depending on margins. Possible playoff qualification.
3. Worst realistic case: Nigeria drops any point, or South Africa / Benin win all their games. Nigeria unlikely to qualify.—
Overall verdict
With the point deduction for South Africa, Nigeria’s qualification chances have improved significantly, turning what looked like a near-miracle into at least a plausible path.
However:
It’s still a steep uphill task. Nigeria must maximize their remaining games. No more slip‐ups.
They must rely somewhat on other teams (South Africa/Benin) to underperform.
Goal difference and margins of victory will be critical, not just winning.
So in short: Nigeria is alive. The automatic qualification is unlikely, but making the playoffs is now in the realm of possibility. Whether they can pull it off depends on discipline, consistency, and a bit of luck.—
