Observations of an Expat: Liking People

By Tom Arms

People like to do business with people they like. Think about it. How many times have you returned to the same bar, restaurant, shop or café because you like the owner or the convivial waitress? You will even pay over the odds because that big smile and friendly chat with a croissant are worth the extra money. Life is just too short for decisions to be based on the saving of a few pennies.

Another much sought-after characteristic is competence. In fact, charm and competence are generally considered a winning combination. And one without the other is, well, pretty much the exact opposite.

That is why a report published this week by the Pew Research Centre is such bad news for everyone in America. It is also an object lesson for the rest of the world.

The Pew Research Centre is a Washington-based think tank that for the past two decades has conducted annual in-depth international surveys on different countries’ perceptions of the United States. Actually, the Pew people prefer the term “fact tank” which, of course, brings their reports into direct conflict with the Trump Administration who might be best described as an “alternative fact farm.”

Certainly, the White House takes little comfort from this week’s Pew survey which reports that perceptions of America and its president plummeted record to lows. The President of the United States is viewed as incompetent and the country as a whole is disliked.

Twenty years ago the British people, for instance, gave the “land of opportunity” an 87 per cent approval rating. Germany’s approval levels of America were at 78 per cent. France, which has always had a more ambivalent attitude to the US, was a bit lower at 62 per cent. At the end of summer 2020, the approval rating of three of America’s most important allies is roughly half of what it was at the turn of the millennium– 41 per cent in the UK, 26 per cent In Germany and 32 per cent in France.

Then there is the competence issue. Here the world is—unsurprisingly—focused on coronavirus. The Japanese are the most generous on the topic. Twenty-five per cent of them thinks that the Trump Administration has done a good job of handling the pandemic. Belgium, however, is the harshest. Only nine per cent of Belgians think that Donald Trump is even coming close to coming to grips with COVID-19.

For centuries—even before 1776—America has thrived on a reputation that has combined a dynamic competence with a strong legally-based moral undercurrent. It was—as Pilgrim Father John Winthrop hoped it would become—“The Shining City on the Hill” that attracted talent and investment from every corner of the globe.

READ ALSO: Observations of an Expat: Not So Free or Fair Elections

Trump supporters argue that the opinion of the rest of the world is irrelevant. When it comes to dollars and cents they are—to a certain extent—correct.  America’s vast resources and huge domestic market means that only 12.2 per cent of its GDP is export-oriented. But, since the start of the twentieth century, it has been a mature economy which means that its growth has become increasingly dependent on foreign trade and international stability.

This in turn has shifted America’s interests away from its traditional cash-oriented laissez-faire comfort zone to the diplomatic sphere where approval ratings become increasingly important. If Donald Trump and his supporters want to “Make America Great Again” then they need to regain international approval for likability and competence. More importantly, they need to gain the world’s Respect.

World Review

I don’t normally write about Climate Change. It is not because I am a climate change denier or that I do not accept that the changing climate and its effects are the number one problem facing everyone on this planet. It is simply that I am not a climatologist and climate change is out of my comfort zone. This week I am being forced into it by raging forest fires the length and breadth of America’s West Coast. You don’t have to be a PhD climatologist to realise that the fires are the result of long periodic droughts and rising global temperatures. Of course, Donald Trump attributes the fires to poor forest management in democratic-controlled states while failing to say that 58% of the forests are federally managed. Sixty-one per cent are privately owned and only three per cent are controlled by state authorities. It is not just California, Oregon and Washington State that are suffering. America’s East and Gulf coasts are being lashed by hurricanes. Ethiopia is suffering the worst floods in a century, leaving 200,000 homeless. This week it was reported that the Greenland ice cap started to crack. Fiji, the Marshall Islands and other Pacific micro-states are slipping under the waves. Florida’s freshwater supply is threatened by rising ocean tides. Australian bush fires are as bad—if not worse—than the forest fires in America. Trump denies this uncomfortable reality because he is a short horizon cash-in-the-bank man whose horizon extends no further than 3 November. Climate change threatens the profitable fossil fuel-driven energy industry, a comfortable gas-guzzling lifestyle and his re-election chances. This is a gaping chasm in Trump’s electoral armour and the signs are that Joe Biden is aiming a cannon at it.

The US President hopes that the well-timed moves towards Middle East peace will play a big role in securing his re-election. Or at the very least secure him the Nobel peace prize in 2021. He may be right, but at the moment it seems that the American public is more concerned about coronavirus, forest fires and hurricanes. That is not to say that Bahrain’s decision to follow the United Arab Emirates in recognising Israel is not important. It is massive. And it is a flock of feathers in Trump’s cap. At the very least, the diplomatic moves occurred on Trump’s watch. It is interesting to note, however, that the current moves bear no relationship to the Kushner plan which basically called on the US and Arab countries to buy off the Palestinians who receive practically no mention in the current agreements. This is very dangerous. The Palestine Liberation Organisation was formed at an Arab League meeting in Cairo in 1964. Throughout the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s it waged a terrorist war against Israel. It was forced out of its springboard base in Lebanon and into exile in Tunisia where the organisation slipped into decline. It was the realpolitik that accompanied this decline that led to the 1993/95 Oslo Accords in which the PLO renounced violence and recognised Israel’s right to exist. But the Palestinians felt reasonably secure in this concession because the Arab states also backed the Palestinians’ claim to a separate state. Now it looks as if the Arab world is abandoning the Palestinian cause. But the Palestinians will never disappear. They are, however, becoming marginalised and with marginalisation comes radicalisation. And this time their position is likely to be backed by Iran—arch enemy of America, the Arab world and Israel. In fact, the threat of Iran probably had more to do with Arab recognition of Israel than American diplomacy.

In Japan this week it was out with the old and in with…the old. Long-serving Liberal Democrat Party Leader and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe actually resigned last week due to ill health. But within a few days, the ruling party’s backroom boys had agreed to replace him with his equally long-serving acolyte 71-year-old Yoshida Suga. This means a continuation of Abenomics and repeated attempts to change the post-war constitution to eliminate restrictions on the Japanese military. However, Suga is unlikely to be much more than a caretaker prime minister until elections are held next year. At that time the LDP will probably opt for a slightly younger leader. Until then, Suga has his work cut out for him, especially on the economic front. The world’s third-largest economy has been in the doldrums for the past two decades and is financing government spending with debts totalling 259 per cent of GDP. Economic growth is desperately needed, but the country is being stymied by the uncomfortable fact that a third of Japan’s population is over 65; a demographic which is not helped by the fact that Japan has the world’s second-highest life expectancy (85).

Some people are surprised by Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s decision to return home after imbibing a cup of novichok tea (or perhaps bottled water). I am not. Vladimir Putin has repeatedly proven that he is no respecter of international boundaries when it comes to violently eliminate his political opponents. Navalny is just as safe in Russia as he is in the Alaskan wilderness, probably safer. His survival of this latest attack has further raised in his profile and provided him with a degree of celebrity immunity. There is no way that Putin can plausibly deny involvement in another attempt. There is also the fact that the public has strengthened the opposition in this week’s Russian local elections, despite persistent reports by independent election monitors of state-orchestrated “voting irregularities”. Full results are not expected until next week, but Navalny’s opposition Progress Party is reported to have secured council seats in the Siberian cities of Tomsk and Novosibirsk. Navalny was poisoned while campaigning in Tomsk. Putin is being further damaged by the problems of Belarussia’s Alexander Lukashenko. The two countries are culturally, historically, economically and politically linked and the anti-Lukashenko riots are being carefully watched by Russian voters. For his part, Putin continues to provide care support to the Belarussian dictator to whom he extended a $1.5 billion line of credit this week.

As far as nature is concerned there are a few silver linings related to coronavirus, at least for the Indo-Pacific humpbacked white dolphins of Hong Kong. Normally these playful mammals steer well clear of Hong Kong Harbour and the Pearl River which runs to Macau. The waterways are usually filled with fast-moving ferries, freighters and oil tankers which represent a major threat to large water mammals. But coronavirus has led to an exponential drop in water traffic and an overnight increase in dolphins and their human fans. Not so fortunate are millions of songbirds who have suddenly dropped dead in the American Southwest and Northern Mexico. They are victims of another of nature’s disasters—the West coast forest fires. Clouds of ash are producing beautiful sunsets, but they are also clogging the lungs of birds, destroying their habitats and food supplies and forcing them into unfamiliar and dangerous migratory patterns.

Stay Healthy,

Tom Arms