OPEC Report Shows Decline in Nigeria Crude Oil Output for April 2025
Nigeria oil production April 2025 recorded a significant dip, according to the latest data from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The May 2025 Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) revealed that the nation’s average daily crude oil production, including condensate, fell to 1.486 million barrels per day (bpd) in April. This marks a decrease from the 1.601 million bpd reported in March 2025.
The OPEC report, which is based on direct communication with Nigerian authorities, noted a lower figure of 1.471 million bpd when using secondary sources. This continued downward trend signals challenges in Nigeria’s capacity to meet its daily output targets.
Nigeria Crude Oil Output Falls Below Budget Expectations
The decrease in Nigeria crude oil output comes at a time when oil prices are falling globally. On the international market, Bonny Light, Nigeria’s flagship crude, traded at $66 per barrel—$9 below the Federal Government’s budget benchmark of $75 per barrel.
The 2025 national budget, valued at ₦54.99 trillion, is anchored on three critical assumptions: a crude oil price of $75 per barrel, daily production of 2.06 million bpd, and an exchange rate of ₦1,500 to the US dollar. With actual output lagging and oil prices below projections, economic analysts are raising concerns over potential revenue shortfalls.
NUPRC Data Contradicts OPEC on Nigeria Oil Production April 2025
In contrast to the OPEC figures, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) painted a more optimistic picture in the Nigeria oil production April 2025 report. According to NUPRC, Nigeria oil production April 2025, including condensate, rose to 1.683 million bpd, an increase of 5% from 1.603 million bpd in March.
Breaking it down, the commission stated that crude oil contributed 1.485 million bpd, while condensates accounted for 197,607 bpd. This output reportedly reached 99% of Nigeria’s OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd.
“Lowest and peak combined crude oil and condensate production in April were 1.60 million bpd and 1.73 million bpd, respectively,” the NUPRC noted.
The discrepancy between the two reports underscores the persistent issues with production data reconciliation in the Nigerian oil sector. Nonetheless, the commission emphasized that the figures show steady improvement and reflect the operational stability of some oil assets.
First Export of Obodo Blend Boosts Nigeria Crude Oil Output Potential
Amid production inconsistencies, Nigeria celebrated a key achievement with the first export of its newly developed Obodo crude blend. The blend, pioneered by Conoil Producing Limited, was unveiled in March and has now officially entered the global crude market.
The Chief Executive Officer of NUPRC, Gbenga Komolafe, congratulated Conoil on this milestone, stating it marks a new era in indigenous contributions to Nigeria crude oil output.
“The export of the first Obodo cargo is a significant milestone for Nigeria’s upstream sector. It showcases the growing capacity of local operators in driving our national output and foreign exchange earnings,” Komolafe remarked.
The introduction of the Obodo blend adds diversification to Nigeria’s crude portfolio, which may help bolster future production figures and attract international buyers seeking varied crude types.
Budget Deficit Fears Rise as Nigeria Oil Production April 2025 Falls Short
With Nigeria oil production April 2025 falling below budgetary expectations, the government faces heightened pressure to stabilize the economy. Experts warn that continued production shortfalls, combined with oil price volatility, could lead to a fiscal deficit.
In the currency market, the naira weakened to ₦1,635 per dollar, further stressing Nigeria’s import-dependent economy. The Central Bank may be forced to adjust monetary policies or tap into external borrowing if the oil revenue gap persists.
Moreover, analysts stress the importance of accurate and unified production reporting, urging the government to strengthen data transparency between institutions such as OPEC and NUPRC.
Outlook for Nigeria Crude Oil Output and Policy Adjustments
Despite the current challenges, the outlook for Nigeria crude oil output in the second half of 2025 remains cautiously optimistic. The successful export of the Obodo blend indicates that indigenous companies are now taking a stronger position in the upstream sector.
Furthermore, the Federal Government is expected to introduce reforms aimed at improving oil production efficiency, reducing theft, and incentivizing local refining. These measures could help align actual production with the budgeted 2.06 million bpd target.
However, meeting these goals will depend on sustained investment, policy consistency, and stronger security around pipeline infrastructure.
Conclusion: Nigeria Oil Production April 2025 Sends Mixed Signals
The latest figures reveal that Nigeria oil production April 2025 fell short of targets, posing risks to fiscal stability. While the OPEC and NUPRC reports differ, both highlight the urgent need for reforms in the reporting and regulation of oil production.
Nonetheless, the launch of the Obodo crude blend demonstrates Nigeria’s resilience and potential to increase indigenous production. With the right policy mix and improved transparency, the country could still steer its energy sector toward long-term sustainability.
