BY TOM ARMS
Donald J. Trump’s political career is very likely over. But Trumpism lives on.
The disrupter-in-chief, conspiracy theorist extraordinaire and the world’s most outstanding example of a self-deluded politician has finally gone too far.
He clearly incited thousands of supporters to march on the seat of American government in an attempt coerce elected representatives into overturning the election result. The assault on the US Capitol while senators and congressmen met to confirm the results of the November vote, was an attempted coup, insurrection, sedition and treason.
Trump’s baseless claims that the election was a fraud were the inspiration behind the riots. His speech—and that of Rudy Giuliani, Donald Trump Jr and others—clearly incited the crowd. His actions were a clear breach of his oath to protect and defend the US constitution.
The events of 6 January, and the two months that preceded it, set a frightening precedent which undermines democracy in America. And because the United States is seen as both the cradle and protector and chief advocate of global democratic values, it undermines laudable efforts to make other governments more representative.
The United States now looks more like a banana republic of the sort it regularly criticises than the “shining city on the hill” that it claims to be.
As awful as the Capitol Hill riots were, even more, disturbing are the results of Hill HarrisX opinion poll conducted on 6-7 January. According to this survey 59 per cent of the voters polled disapproved of Trump’s handling of the riots. Great, you might say, that is a clear majority. But the flip side is that 41 per cent of the electorate approved of Trump’s actions.
Despite the fact that the riot was a clear attempt to undermine the constitution, the rule of law and the democratic processes of government, a whopping 41 per cent of the electorate thought Trump did the right thing.
That is Trump’s legacy: A hardcore alliance of evangelicals, White supremacists, paranoid conspiracy theorists, gun rights activists, libertarians and far-right politicians. Each of these groups on their own is too small to be an effective political voice. But united under the banner of Trumpism they remain a powerful force even without their cult figure leader.
At the root of their grievance is racism and what they view as the American economic decline. Race and ethnicity have been a defining factor in American politics since its earliest days. It is the unpalatable fruit of centuries of slavery, the Civil War, Jim Crow, segregation, the civil rights movement and now the Black Lives Matter and its backlash.
It is not just African-Americans who have felt the brunt. Jim Crow laws were extended to Native Americans. Ethnic Japanese were interned during World War Two. Chinese labourers were deported after building the railroads. In the 1856 presidential elections, the anti-Catholic, anti-immigrant, xenophobic Native American Party won 21.6 per cent of the population vote. Racism is part of America’s national DNA. It will not go away, or at least not easily.
Mixed with racist heritage is a contemporary economic decline. America is still the world’s largest economy—just. But its share of the global GDP has shrunk from a high point of 28.69 per cent in 1960 to 24.4% in 2020. Not a huge drop but it has meant fewer jobs and opportunities in the rust belt which stretches from the Midwest/Great Lakes region to Western Pennsylvania, Ohio and Appalachia. The concept that each succeeding American generation will by right be better off than their parents is now considered a thing of the past.
READ ALSO: Observations of an Expat: A Bad Year
These conditions are facts that remain regardless of who sits in the Oval Office. They are social and economic realities and will continue to provide fertile ground for demagogic populists prepared to exploit it for their own political ambitions.
Those populists are easy to identify. They are, for a start, the senators and congressmen who voted to contest the elections despite the attack on Capitol Hill. At the top of the list are Senator Ted Cruz from Texas and Missouri senator Josh Hawley. Both men see the populist mantle slipping from the shoulders of Donald Trump and are positioning themselves to win the support of Trump’s base by supporting the president’s conspiracy theories.
The fact is, that every time Cruz, Hawley and others look in the mirror, their naked ambition sees a president staring back at them. Trump set the precedent of riding roughshod over the constitution and the rule of law. The danger is that whoever replaces him will see political capital in continuing the trend.
World Review
The received political wisdom is that America’s Republican Party is headed for a split of almost Biblical proportions. It is almost certainly true as Republican leaders try to either distance themselves from a disgraced former president or position themselves to inherit his populist mantle and large voter base. But the Democrats could be in for a rough ride as well. Joe Biden is a centrist who seeks the healing middle ground. He will have problems dealing with his party’s left-wing led in the Senate by figures such as Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren and in Congress by “The Squad” (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar, Ayanna Presley and Rashida Tlaib). The first big test for Democratic Party cohesion will be the left-wing’s demand that the White House immediately appoint two liberal Supreme Court justices to adjust the court’s left-right balance. Such a move is likely to unite Republicans in outraged opposition just as they should be falling into disarray.
Iran has made its biggest ever breach of the Iran Nuclear Accords. It has announced that it is increasing capacity at its uranium enrichment facility deep in the mountains at Fodor from 3.6 per cent to 20 per cent. It has also announced that it will no longer allow inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency. This is disturbing but not catastrophic. For a start, uranium needs to be enriched to a 90 per cent level before weapons-grade plutonium is produced. So Tehran is still a long way from that. Secondly, it is not really the surprise that most commentators claim. The Iranian parliament passed a motion two months ago saying that if US oil and financial sanctions were not eased by January then they would increase enrichment levels to 20 per cent. It is fair today, however, that increasing enrichment levels raises what is called the “jumping off” point from which Iran could quickly move to the production of weapons-grade plutonium. Finally, you have to ask why now? The most likely answer is because of the change in administrations in Washington. Joe Biden has said he wants America to re-join the Iran Nuclear Accord. The Iranians see his position as an opening to negotiate an easing of sanctions. They have only one tool in their negotiating armoury— nuclear enrichment.
As we head into the winter months the world appears to have settled into a deep pandemic lockdown. A British variant and then South African variant of coronavirus is spreading across continents and oceans. It does not appear to be any more deadly. But it is substantially more contagious, which means more people contract it and so more people die. After promising the British public a normal Christmas and opened schools in the New Year, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been forced by nature into another U-turn. He now says that the UK can expect to be in lockdown until the end of March. Similar stories are coming out of France, Germany, Spain, Italy…. Japan is talking of declaring a state of emergency and China is finding new cases. The good news is that the vaccine is now available. The bad news is that distribution is patchy. After two weeks a bureaucratic nightmare meant that the French authorities had only managed to jab about 600 arms. Germany was much better at 265,000, but in Europe, the British are leading the pack with circa 1.5 million vaccinations. Trump’s “Operation Warp Speed” has slowed to a little bit faster than a snail’s pace. More than 12 million doses have been distributed but only 4.6 million administered. Tiny Israel, however, is a success story. They have roped in the military and dispensed vaccinations on a 24/7 basis. The result is that in two weeks medics have vaccinated one-sixth of the country’s population. Of course, the Israelis are refusing to vaccinate the Palestinians. India is a bit of concern, they are starting to vaccinate citizens with a home-grown and untested vaccine. The fear is that the government is sacrificing safety at the altar of vaccine nationalism. But what is clear is that even with the vaccines the world is in for several more months of the pandemic. Hopefully, we can look forward to the summer of hugs, kisses, dinner parties and well-attended restaurants, cinemas and sporting events.
Where is Jack Ma? China’s charismatic high-tech multi-billionaire has been among the missing since October. His disappearance from public view coincided with a speech he gave in Shanghai in which the founder of Ali Baba and Ant Group accused the Chinese authorities of “stifling innovation” and said that the national banks had a “pawn shop mentality.” His speech came on the eve of the IPO of Ma’s Ant Group on the Shanghai Exchange. The Initial Public Offering was billed as the biggest in history. The Chinese authorities stopped it at the last minute and Jack Ma simply disappeared. It could be that the billionaire is simply lying low and waiting for the storm blow over. Or, it could be that he is languishing in a Chinese prison cell or labour camp. His money combined with an ebullient personality and acute business sense has turned him into a celebrity rival to President Xi Jinping. That is not a good thing to be in a country where the party—and by association— its leader, is paramount. Billionaire property tycoon Ren Zhi Qiang proved that wealth is no guarantee of protection against the wrath of the Chinese Communist Party and its leader. He disappeared for several months earlier this year after criticising President Xi’s handling of the pandemic. When he reappeared he was jailed on corruption charges for 18 years.
.READ ALSO: Observations of an Expat: A Bad Year2020/12/18
Observations of an Expat: Looking Foolish2020/12/11
Observations of an Expat: Pakistan—Next to Recognise Israel?2020/12/05
Observations of an Expat: Development Aid2020/11/27
Observations of an Expat: Ethiopia2020/11/20
Observations of an Expat: 20242020/11/13
Observations Of An Expat: The Election2020/11/06
Observations of an Expat: The End is Not in Sight2020/10/31
Observations of an Expat: Taiwan2020/10/23
Observations of an Expat: Brexit—A Fishy Tale2020/10/17
Observations of an Expat: Trump, COVID and Me2020/10/10
Observations of an Expat: Geopolitical Fault Line2020/10/02
Observations of an Expat: Shifting Goalposts2020/09/26
Observations of an Expat: Liking People2020/09/18
Observations of an Expat: Not So Free or Fair Elections2020/08/21
Observations of an Expat: I am an Immigrant
More news from China. Actually, it is from Hong Kong and the South China Sea and possibly the East China Sea. The crackdown on the Hong Kong opposition reached new heights this week as security forces arrested 53 pro-democracy leaders. They have been accused of organising a primary election to select candidates for the next election of members to Hong Kong’s Legislative Council. Apparently, such a move has been deemed “subversive” by Beijing. At the same time, a British aircraft carrier—the brand new HMS Queen Elizabeth—set sail for the Far East. Going with her are a destroyer, a submarine and at least one support ship. The British ships will be participating in joint exercises with the American and Japanese navy in the disputed areas of South China and East China Seas. Not surprisingly, the Chinese have protested at this “provocative” action. This deployment is not part of a massive British naval build-up in Asia. HMS Elizabeth will not be permanently deployed on the opposite side of the world. So why are the British risking the wrath of the Chinese? Because of Hong Kong. Britain has limited political or economic levers that it can use against the Chinese. Sending its new aircraft carrier to seas claimed by China is a clear gesture that Britain strongly disapproves of China’s actions in the former British colony of Hong Kong. The Chinese economy, by the way, is projected to grow by 7.9 per cent in 2021 while the rest of the world continues to contract, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Stay Healthy,
Tom Arms
