BY TOM ARMS
Everyone hates to look foolish. To avoid this hugely embarrassing peril they will often go to great lengths ranging from self-deception to conspiracy theories to lies.
And the greater the personal investment in an untenable position the more difficult it is for the investor to change direction and face the chorus of “I told you so’s.”
Two of the most prominent examples of this foolishness are Brexit and Donald Trump. Millions of intelligent Americans have invested their political heart and soul in the Cult of Trump. They cannot comprehend the possibility of his losing the November presidential election. Therefore, their leader must be the victim of massive fraud.
The numerous election officials – Republican and Democrat— who consistently maintain that the vote was the fairest in American history are evil participants in a Deep State conspiracy. They are in an unholy league with the courts that have repeatedly dismissed the Trump campaign claims of election chicanery.
The fact-filled brick wall that Trump supporters have bumped up against has led some of them to call for dangerously extreme measures. Pardoned former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn has, for instance, called on President Trump to suspend the constitution, cancel the election result, declare martial law and then use the military to oversee fresh elections.
Britain’s Brexiteers are faring equally badly, although in a different way.
During the 2016 Brexit referendum debate and afterwards the proponents of British withdrawal from the EU promised the British voters an array of reassuring sound bites. They could have their “cake and eat it too”. Negotiations with the EU would be “Easy peasy”. Ireland was not a problem and Prime Minister Boris Johnson had an “oven-ready deal” to “Get Brexit Done.”
Whenever those opposed to Brexit pointed out the numerous pitfalls of ending free trade with its biggest and nearest trading partner and unpicking thousands of regulations, security links, trade patterns, scientific connections and political cooperation they were accused of resorting to “fear factor” tactics.
Well, the nightmare of the Fear Factor is now the Here Factor. After a year of hard negotiations aimed at establishing a UK-EU trade agreement, both sides have effectively admitted failure. Short of a diplomatic miracle, Britain will leave the EU on 1 January 2022 without a deal.
Some of the results in the UK of this momentous failure in statecraft are price rises for European-produced products ranging from 2.8 to 35 percent. Freight road traffic is likely to be held up for days at a time as customs checks are introduced at ports on both sides of the English Channel. Perishable medicines and foods may be lost. A question mark hangs over the future of London’s future as a financial centre. A fishing war is likely between France and Britain and British police will be denied access to the EU’s database of criminal records. There are many more repercussions.
The Bank of England reckons that this No Deal Brexit will lead to inflation and, according to The Economist, an eight per cent shrinkage in the UK economy. This would be on top of the 11.3 per cent contraction that Chancellor Rishi Sunak has predicted will be caused by the coronavirus pandemic.
The reaction of the British government is to minimise the problem and accuse their European negotiating partners of inflexibility and bad faith. They are not shouting fraud like their American cousins across the pond, but they are doubling down, seeking scapegoats and doing their best to not look foolishly incompetent.
The Johnson government is as heavily invested in the concept of Brexit as the Republican Party is in the cult of Trump. Neither can abandon their position without looking foolish. The problem is that there comes a point when you no longer appear foolish. You look plain ridiculous.
World Review
President Trump is running out of legal options to overturn the November election results. Almost every legal argument presented in the lower courts has been dismissed as “frivolous” and this week a handful of Pennsylvania Republicans were “denied” the opportunity to plead their case before the US Supreme Court. This is the same court that Trump believed that he had politically stacked in his favour with the appointment of conservative justices Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanagh and Amy Coney Barrett. The president appears to be clinging to one final long-shot legal lifeline: a bid to throw out the election results in four battleground states – Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan—and delay the electoral college vote due on Monday (14 December). The proposal was constructed by Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and is supported by the Republican attorney Generals of 17 other states as well as a number of Republican senators and congressmen. There is a big difference between this suit and other legal efforts. Up until now, the Trump team has focused on baseless accusations of fraud. This latest legal application focuses on “unauthorised rules” which the Trump campaign maintains are unconstitutional. The rules which Trump refers to relate, of course, to mail-in ballots which he claims are inherently fraudulent if not downright illegal. Election officials in the battleground states—and every other official—vehemently disagree. The odds are that the Supreme Court will refuse to even hear the case just as they did with the Pennsylvania suit.
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It is not official yet, but it looks as if retired General Lloyd Austin is likely to be nominated for the post of US Secretary of Defence. Much has been made of the fact that he would be the first African-American in the post. Personally, I do not think that is as important as the fact that he is a recently retired general. There is a strong tradition in western democracies, backed up by political principle and fear of military power that dictates that the post of Defence Secretary or Minister of Defence is held by a civilian. Technically, General Austin is a civilian. He retired from military life just over a year ago. But is that far enough in the past. American law dictates that a special congressional waiver is required for any person to be appointed to a cabinet post unless they have been out of uniform for seven years or more. Of course, there is precedent for this. General James Mattes had only been retired for four years when President Trump appointed him Defence Secretary. And by all accounts, he did an excellent job until he fell afoul of his master. But Trump had the benefit of a Republican-controlled Senate. At the moment, Joe Biden does not have that luxury. Although that may change with the Senate run-off elections in Georgia in January.
Coronavirus vaccines are coming out fast and furious. This week saw the first jabs in Britain. Canada has also approved the drug and will probably start poking people next week. The US will quickly follow suit. Astra Zeneca’s cure is expected to be approved by Britain next week. The Russian answer to Covid-19—Sputnik V—has been authorised by President Putin to be distributed to the masses. But there is serious concern about the Russian effort because it has reportedly been tested on only 20 volunteers. Even so, the Russians are in talk with Astra Zeneca to produce another mix and match vaccine. China is testing a vaccine in Dubai which is reported to have 87 percent efficacy. It is expected to ready for approval early in 2021. With the first jabs have come the first anti-vac scares. Two British health workers with serious allergies reacted badly when given the Pfizer/BioNtech vaccine. The drug now has a new warning label attached: Not suitable for those with severe allergies. The next big problem is moving the drugs from production centres to distribution outlets and finally into the bodies of the general population. The UK government has ordered 40 million doses of the Pfizer/BioNtech to start with. They will initially be administered to the most vulnerable in 50 hospitals with the facilities to keep the vaccine at the required temperature of -70 centigrade. This will be followed by the establishment of another 1,500 vaccination centres in stadiums, race tracks and conference centres. In the US they have dubbed the vaccine distribution “Operation Warp Speed” and have placed an initial order for 300 million doses with Pfizer/BioNtech. The distribution will be generally coordinated by the Centre for Disease Control, but the final distribution will be handled by the different states. Germany, France and Denmark have already built special vaccination centres complete with cold storage units.
One country that would seriously benefit from a coronavirus vaccine is India where the virus is spreading exponentially. In the capital of New Delhi there are reports that five people an hour are dying. The queues of relatives carrying dead bodies into crematoria are up to a mile long. The burial grounds are full and the city’s live residents have been reduced to searching for vacant plots in which to bury their loved ones. To make matters worse, the country is going through a political crisis involving its farmers. In an effort to modernise India’s agricultural market, the government of Narendra Modi is stopping the established system of government price controls. Instead of farmers’ produce being sold at guaranteed prices to government-controlled markets, it will now be sold directly to the supermarkets. The farmers fear that the resultant increase in free-market competition will lead to a dramatic drop in income and are literally rioting. They have been trying to storm New Delhi where the police have turned them back with water cannon, tear gas and lachli charges. On top of that, New Delhi has become one of the most polluted cities in the world.
China has added another pearl to its geopolitical string. For those unaware of the term “String of Pearls” it relates to a geographic string of Chinese-controlled ports stretching from South-eastern China to the Chinese-controlled facility at Port Sudan on the Red Sea. Other Chinese-controlled ports are Gawadar in Pakistan and Kyaukpyu in Myanamar. Firmly added to the list this week is the Sri Lankan port of Hambantota near the southern tip of the island country. The Chinese have increased their hold on the port and its industrial facilities by opening a $300 million tyre factory. The port itself was built by Chinese engineers with a $1.4 billion loan from China. When the Sri Lankans failed to make the necessary loan repayments, the Chinese foreclosed and took control of the port. The “String of Pearls” is a key element in China’s ambitious Road/Belt Initiative to link China and Asia to Europe and Africa. Morgan Stanley estimates that it will cost Beijing $1.3 trillion by 2027. India and a number of Western countries are concerned that the String of Pearls could be easily adapted to military purposes, giving the Chinese a strong naval presence in The Indian Ocean, Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea, South China Sea and Red Sea.
The firemen of the central Italian town of Rieti were faced with a problem. The 4th of December was the feast day of Saint Barbara who is the patron saint of both firefighters and the town. Normally this meant that the statue of the saint was removed from her pedestal in the town’s main church and processed through the streets with accompanying clergy, incense burners, and all the pomp and ceremony that the locals could muster. But this year Covid-19 restrictions meant a ban on public gatherings and thus no procession. This was unacceptable to the firemen. So they strapped Saint Barbara’s statue to the front of their rescue helicopter and processed through the air across the town so that all 47,000 inhabitants could see that the tradition had been kept alive.
Stay Healthy,
Tom Arms
