Observations of an Expat: Shifting Goalposts

By TOM ARMS

If evidence was required of shifting global goalposts then diplomatic observers didn’t need to look any further than the start of this year’s UN General Assembly.

For a start, the General Assembly Hall was sparsely populated with socially distanced diplomats. Coronavirus has kept away the heads of state, government and foreign ministers who normally gather in the UN building on the west bank of New York’s East River. Instead, the speeches have been pre-recorded and displayed on the giant screen.

No politicos mean no chance for the usual annual flurry of bilaterals where the real diplomatic business is done. It also means fewer opportunities for world leaders to make the 214-mile plane journey to Washington for a photo-op and short chat with the US President.

But all of the above are relatively speaking cosmetic changes compared to the rapidly moving substantive global shifts pushing the world down uncertain paths.

This is a big anniversary for the United Nations. It is 75 years since the organisation’s founding in October 1945. Europe had been devastated by World War Two. Politically the world was still Euro-centric with the end of the colonial era yet to be confirmed. Asia was a backwater. China was riven by civil war. The Soviet Union was threatening and the United States had emerged as the number one military, political and economic power.

The formation of the UN formally ended the roughly 150 years of American isolationism and catapulted Washington into the position of world policeman and bastion of democracy, capitalism and free trade.

In the ensuing three-quarters of a century, the Soviet Union has collapsed under the weight of its internal contradictions. Empires have disappeared.  Chinese-dominated Asia has emerged to challenge Western hegemony. And Europe has recovered from the disaster of two world wars to move towards unification aimed at ending centuries of wasteful feuding.

In 1945, multilateralism through bodies such as the UN was a key element of American foreign policy. It was the diplomatic tool which Washington used to challenge the European empires. As the imperial system collapsed the focus shifted to the Cold War and then, more recently, the War on Terror.

With multilateralism came its economic handmaidens of free trade and globalism, both spurred on by the IT revolution of the late 20^th and early 21^st century. The US prospered.  But the pre-war isolationism continued as a political undercurrent and mingled with a feeling that America’s open-handed good nature was being exploited.

The result was Donald Trump’s jettisoning of multilateralism for the unilateralism of “Make American Great Again.”  Tariffs were imposed. Trade agreements were renegotiated or scrapped. Established military alliances have been threatened with the withdrawal of American support and conspiracy theories and political scapegoating have replaced international cooperation.

But Trump’s unilateralism has not negated the need for the United Nations and multilateralism. It has only created a vacuum which America’s number one scapegoat/rival—China– is rushing to fill. In his recorded address to the General Assembly, Donald Trump repeated previous assertions that countries should follow his unilateralist example and accused of China of unleashing the “plague” of coronavirus on the world. President Xi Jinping countered with a dismissal of Trump’s plague claims and the declaration that “anti-globalisation was going against the trend of history.”

READ ALSO: Observations of an Expat: Liking People

In his address, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned: “We are moving in a very dangerous direction. Our world cannot afford a future where the two largest economies split the globe in a great fracture. A technological and economic divide risks inevitably turning into a geo-strategic and military divide. We must avoid this at all costs.”

Guterres added that coronavirus was only a “dress rehearsal for the challenges ahead.”

World Review

Supreme Court—The Notorious RBG (aka Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg) was—to the dismay of her liberal supporters—mortal. She died this week at the age of 87 of pancreatic cancer and her death has given President Trump the opportunity to appoint her replacement and create a conservative-leaning court for decades to come. Of course, to do so exposes Trump and the entire Republican Party to charges of hypocrisy. President Obama, faced with total opposition from a Republican Senate, agreed with their assertion that the nomination to replace Antonin Scalia should wait nine months until after the inauguration of the winner of the 2016 elections. Democrats say that Trump should do the same.  No, No, not this time. What was right for a Democratic nomination does not apply to a Republican, says Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Legally he is right. The agreement to delay in 2016 was not a law. It was no more than a convenient agreement. Constitutionally-speaking, Donald Trump has every right to nominate Ginsburg’s replacement as soon as possible. And he will. But that won’t stop Democrats from shouting foul. And it will act as a catalyst to further energise the anti-Trump base. But then it will also energise the Trump base who see the Supreme Court battle as the chance to achieve one of their major goals. The end result is that with both camps equally energised and equally, they will probably cancel each other out at the polls and the death of RBG will have a minimal political impact on the presidential race, but it could cost the Republicans their Senate majority.

Europe is in the throes of a second COVID wave and with winter just around the corner, it seems like it can only get worse. Leaders, however, are concerned about the impact that national lockdowns have on the economy and are either going in for partial regional lockdowns or tightening up rules on social distancing and the wearing of face masks. In Britain, the focus is on the rule of six. No more than six people are allowed to gather inside or outside, face masks are required on public transport and enclosed spaces and restaurants and pubs have restricted opening hours. Restrictions will be in place for at least six months. In France, they have gone for localised lockdowns, but there are now several hundred of them scattered across the country. Face masks are a required fashion accessory in lockdown areas, enclosed spaces and on the beaches. In Spain, children as young as six are required to wear face masks. In Germany, which still has the best record in Europe, has introduced compulsory testing at airports. All Italian night clubs have been shut. Danish children were the first to return to school—back in April—but the country appears to have paid the price with 600 new cases a day in the past week. It is going to be a tough winter.

The second Spanish wave is complicated by charges that most of the effects of the latest anti-COVID restrictions are falling unfairly on the poorest segments of Spanish society. It is they who are being thrown out of work and, in many cases, their homes because no job means no money for rent. Madrid is the current Spanish epicentre. Most European countries are now going for localised lockdowns, but everywhere else that means an entire city falls under COVID restrictions. Not Madrid. The lockdown is being introduced only in the city districts where the virus is rampant—the poor, overcrowded areas with a high immigrant population. The wealthier districts are restriction-free. Police have been introduced at 60 checkpoints throughout Madrid to keep the poor out of the wealthier areas unless they have to move from area to another for their work. Not surprisingly the residents of the poorer areas have taken to the streets to demonstrate. The poor-rich divide reached its zenith this week at a performance of the Spanish National Opera. Wealthy denizens in the expensive seats were socially distanced. Those in the cheap balcony seats were packed in shoulder to shoulder.

Iran chalked up a massive diplomatic victory this week and the US suffered a major defeat. The issue was the continuation of UN sanctions against Iran.  UN sanctions against Iran were lifted when the Iran Nuclear Accord was signed in 2015. This was confirmed by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. President Barack Obama, did not, however, leave himself exposed. He secured what was termed a “snapback mechanism” which meant that any of the participants in the deal (the five permanent members of the Security Council plus Germany) could unilaterally re-impose UN sanctions if they thought Iran was in breach of the agreement. Furthermore, the re-imposition procedure would circumvent the vetoes of the permanent Security Council members, especially Russia and China. The snag was the word “participating” or “participant”. To use the snapback mechanism the government had to be an ongoing member in good standing of the governing agreement. Donald Trump pulled the US out of the agreement in May 2018. Every country in the world—except the Dominican Republic—has ruled that Trump’s withdrawal meant that Washington relinquished its right to use the “snapback mechanism.” This was confirmed this week and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani was able to crow that the Trump Administration had been “humiliated.” However, America’s unilateral sanctions continue to wreak havoc on the Iranian economy on their own. Iran remains in a deep recession and oil exports have dropped from 3.5 million barrels a day when sanctions were lifted in 2015 to under 2 million barrels a day. But Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has learned that if you want a seat at the table then you have to stay seated at the table.

Here is a new one. The Kenyan parliament may be dissolved and new elections called because not enough female legislators were elected in the last general election. At least that is the ruling of the country’s top lawman—Chief Justice David Maraga. His view is based on a 2010 constitutional amendment which says that at least a third of the Kenyan parliament’s seats must be held by women, gays or transgender legislators. A new election would be difficult given the COVID pandemic, the attending economic crisis and the political violence that seems to dog Kenyan elections. Chief Justice accepts this. But as the top judge, he takes the view that respect for the law—especially by parliament and the government—must take priority.

India has required reform of its heavily-subsidised agricultural industry for decades. The government of Narendra Modi has picked exactly the wrong moment to do it. With coronavirus deaths climbing interminably to new daily peaks, agricultural workers are frightened to work in the fields and the markets. An estimated half of India’s 1.35 billion people work in agriculture and they produce a major chunk of the world’s rice, millet, wheat and fruits. Their income has been protected by government markets—or mandis—which have bought the produce at heavily subsidised prices. The new legislation ends a big chunk of the subsidies and encourages farmers to sell direct to shops, thus making them more vulnerable to the vagaries of the market place. Modi has called the reforms a “watershed”. The opposition termed them a “death warrant” for farmers. Eight opposition MPs have been suspended for staging a sit-in. Not surprisingly, Indian farmers are a major political force and have taken to the streets in protest. But there is no sign of the government budging an inch. They have to save money to pay for the pandemic.

Forget the pollsters with their complicated algorithms and armies of researchers. If you want to know who is going to win the US presidential elections then head to Peru and the incense-filled backrooms of the local shamans. They claim an inside track to the future through their connections with pachamam (aka Mother Earth). Unfortunately, the soothsayers’ predictions are as divided as the American electorate. Ana Marie Simeon is busy placing curses on Republicans whom she claims are sticking needles in voodoo dolls of Joe Biden while Pablo Torres has trained his snakes to spit good luck venom on images of Donald Trump.

Stay Healthy,

Tom Arms