BY TOM ARMS
There are few certainties in American politics at the moment, but I think we can say (with fingers and toes crossed) that Donald Trump has lost the presidential election; Joe Biden will be inaugurated on 20 January 2021 and Trump will leave the White House (one way or another) on or about the same day.
But what will the obese, orange-faced narcissist with the bouffant hairstyle do once he has exited 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue?
Well, he will be 74 years old. He could simply retire to Mar-a-Lago and work on his golf handicap. He doesn’t have to worry about money. In addition to the billions of which he constantly boasts, Trump will receive an ex-president’s pension of $207,800; free healthcare; a staff and Secret Service protection.
That scenario, however, seems unlikely, Donald Trump is the ultimate illustration of power as an aphrodisiac. He thrives in the limelight and wilts in the shade. Donald Trump will want to continue as disrupter-in-chief outside elected office.
To do so requires money. This may attract him back to his property roots and a global real estate empire. It badly needs attention as most of his investments are in leisure and travel-related property which has been hit by the coronavirus pandemic.
But the problem with a return to real estate is that the Trump brand has been tarnished. While he was a rising star and then president everyone wanted to do business with him or his family. Doing business with a defeated and petulant president who is a right-wing ideologue would be too much of a political statement for most businessmen.
Another possibility is the media mogul route, either with his own television network, or, in tandem with an existing conservative platform. It he goes the latter route the most likely partner is the ultra-right-wing One America News Network. Fox has been ruled out after they unceremoniously ditched him on election night.
Trump is a made for the television personality. He is also a connoisseur of controversy. He would use a media platform to attack the Biden Administration with a barrage of conspiracy theories, lies and misinformation. And people will tune in to listen and buy the products he advertises. More than 71.5 million Americans voted to keep him in the White House.
The media platform seems the most likely scenario, especially as there have been reports that son-in-law Jared Kushner has been busy raising funds for just such a possibility. A television network—or even just a programme—could become a vehicle for a second run at the White House in 2024.
If Donald himself doesn’t make the attempt then he could support one of his family, all of whom he sees through the reflective lens of his own glory. Donald Jr has refused to deny that he may run for the presidency. It has also been suggested that Ivanka could be the first woman president and the less bombastic Jared Kushner is lurking quietly in the background.
There are, however, a few substantial legal hurdles which Trump will need to overcome out of office. While he was president, Trump, was immune from prosecution. But the legal vultures are already circling ready to swoop down one minute after 12 noon on 20 January 2021 (the time he officially ceases to be president). Chief vulture is New York District Attorney, Cyrus Vance Jr., who has a long list of alleged crimes including state tax evasion, fraud and a variety of other financial irregularities. On top of that Trump’s niece, Mary is planning to sue him for fraud and conspiracy; two women who claim Trump sexually assaulted them have outstanding defamation suits against him and two other women claim they were paid hush money by the Trump Organisation in violation of election law.
Trump has indicated that he will avoid prosecution by pardoning himself just before leaving office. Well, not only is this constitutionally suspect, but the presidential pardon only applies to federal crimes. A number of the charges relate to state crimes. Some legal experts believe that Trump could face his first indictment within three months of leaving office.
There is also the question of financial liquidity. The New York Times reported that the president will have $300 million in loans fall due over the next few years. Failure to pay could lead to bankruptcy. But then the president is no stranger to that financial state.
World Review
Trump’s Twitter dismissal of Defence Secretary Mark Esper raised a number of eyebrows in the world’s corridors of power. Esper was seen as a brake on Trump. It was he who stopped the president from sending in federal troops to quell Black Lives Matter riots. He is also said to be opposed to too rapid a de-escalation in Afghanistan and the Middle East, and Trump’s attitude towards Germany and NATO. This sacking raises the obviously worrying question: Why dismiss a prominent cabinet minister when you have only two months left in office? Esper’s acting replacement, Chris Miller, is cut from the same highly qualified apolitical cloth as Mad Dog Mattis. But Esper’s departure also created additional key vacancies as Pentagon officials protested with their feet at the unceremonious twitter sacking. These positions have been filled by alt-right Trump loyalists such as Kash Patel, a former aide to Republican Congressman Devin Nunes, Trump acolyte and chair of the House Intelligence Committee at the height of the Mueller Inquiry. Another appointment is Anthony Tata, a retired Brigadier, who won Trump’s affection by referring to Barrack Obama as “a domestic terrorist.” The charitable interpretation of Trump’s moving of the Titanic deck chairs is that he wanted to help a few people out by boosting their resumes before the good ship Donald slipped beneath the waves. However, that interpretation does not quite fit with the known vengeful disposition of the disrupter-in-chief.
Which country has had the world’s fastest-growing economy for the past ten years? Here is a hint: It is in East Africa and involves one of the world’s oldest continuous states. Yes, it is Ethiopia (aka Abyssinia); revered in ancient time as the home of the Queen of Sheba and in the medieval world as the domain of the fabled Christian king Prester John. Modern Ethiopia is an economic success with an average ten-year growth in GDP of 9.8 per cent. When the $5 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam starts producing hydroelectricity that figure could easily skyrocket. The only ginormous fly in this ointment of prosperity is the threat of political instability. And at the moment Ethiopia is racing down this precarious road. The root cause is the country’s complex national-ethnic makeup. Ethiopia has 80 different ethnic groups speaking 86 different languages. Each of these groups has its own history, culture and national heroes. It is said that the only time an Ethiopian from Tigray, Amhara or Oromo refer to themselves as Ethiopian is during the Olympics. The heavy emphasis on ethnic differences has led to a political structure best described as an incredibly loose federation. According to the 1995 constitution, there are nine ethnically-based states and every state has the right of self-determination right up to and including the right to secede. The constitution is the brainchild of the Marxist-oriented Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and up until a few years ago they held the Ethiopian reins of power. Unfortunately for them the long war with Eritrea and a heavy-handed approach to dissidents led to them losing control to Abiy Ahmed Ali in 2018 who sees Ethiopia’s future as a modern unitary state. He booted the TPLF out of government and formed a national political party, the People’s Prosperity (PP). Not surprisingly, some of the ethnically-based parties objected, in particular the Oromians and the Tigrayans. The result is that the country is now descending rapidly towards a disastrous civil war.
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Azerbaijan has won its six-week-long war with Armenia over the future of Nagorno-Karabakh. There is dancing in the streets of the Azeri capital of Baku and riots in Armenia’s Yerevan. The war has been brought to an end by a Russian-brokered ceasefire which 1- determined that both sides could remain where they were when the ceasefire was declared and 2- the ceasefire would be policed by 1,970 Russian personnel patrolling the frontline between the two forces. As Azerbaijan gained considerable ground it was the victor. But Baku was not the only winner and Yerevan was not the only loser. Turkey also came out of the conflict with its regional interests considerably strengthened. It had unreservedly backed its Muslim co-religionists in Azerbaijan with drones, missiles and mercenary troops. A victory for Baku is a victory for Ankara and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who is enjoying a string of foreign successes including Northern Syria and Libya. If Turkey won, then Russia lost. They have a military base in Armenia and Baku is a member of the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation. The Armenians were depending on Vladimir Putin to counter Turkish support for Azerbaijan. He let them down badly. No planes, no guns and no missiles; just a negotiated ceasefire and peacekeepers that confirm an Azeri-Turkish victory.
This week former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd handed in a petition to the Australian parliament demanding a royal inquiry into Rupert Murdoch’s dominance of the Australian media industry. Attached to the petition were a record-breaking 501,876 signatures, including that of another former PM, Malcolm Turnbull. Rudd’s assertion of inordinate Murdoch power is understandable as the media mogul controls an estimated 70 percent of his homeland’s news landscape. On top of that there is his ownership of Fox News, The New York Post, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, The Times, Sunday Times, The Sun and Murdoch is the largest shareholder in Britain’s Sky Television. Surprisingly enough, Murdoch’s News Corporation is only the world’s fifth largest news empire. But it stands out because of Rupert’s use of his newspapers and networks to ruthlessly promote his own business interests and right-wing politics. News Corporation titles, for instance, are keen supporters of climate change denial. The most recent example of Murdoch’s willingness to use media ownership to pursue personal aims was the unceremonious ditching of President Trump by the formerly slavish Fox News and New York Post. Rudd’s petition is unlikely to succeed. So, perhaps Murdoch’s opponents should focus instead on influencing the succession to 89-year-old Rupert. At the moment there appear to be two contenders: sons Lachlan (aged 48) and James (aged 47). Daughter Elisabeth appears to have lost interest in running her father’s empire. The current favourite for the top job is Lachlan. James was in pole position for several years but his liberal views—especially on climate change—have alienated him from his father.
They are calling it “The Cruise to Nowhere.” This slightly disconcerting designation may for some conjures up images of the Mary Celeste, Bermuda Triangle and ghostly apparitions. Not so, for the residents of Singapore. They are queuing up to board the liners of Dream Cruises. For them it is a welcome temporary escape from the city-state in which they are trapped by the pandemic. For four days they will cruise the high seas without disembarking at any other potentially covid-infected port. Hence the word “nowhere”. Each passenger is thoroughly-tested for covid symptoms before being allowed to board. Social distancing is strictly enforced along with face masks. If anyone displays coronavirus symptoms than they are immediately put in isolation and the ship returns to Singapore. “I don’t care about the restrictions,” said one passenger, “I just want to go somewhere different for a few days.” The international cruise ship industry has been hard hit by the pandemic. Perhaps they could learn something from Singapore.
Stay Healthy,
Tom Arms
